Since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine earlier in the year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has appealed to the US and NATO on several occasions to create a no-fly zone over the country.
In a fervent address to Congress in a joint session earlier in the year, Zelensky reiterated that it was critical for NATO and its allies to step in and protect the skies over Ukraine in a bid to put to an end the incessant artillery fire and airstrikes from Russian armed forces.
This article explores what no fly zones are and why the US or NATO won’t establish one over Ukraine.
What Is a No Fly Zone?
No-fly zones are predetermined sections of airspace where military forces restrict access to all other forms of aircraft. When one or more countries enact one, they are essentially taking responsibility for monitoring the airspace in question and suppressing and eliminating any aircraft that violates these boundaries.
For NATO to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine, it would mean that US or NATO pilots would be flying military jets over the country, patrolling the skies with specific orders to shoot down any unauthorized aircraft that enters Ukrainian airspace. This move would, in turn, create a situation where US or NATO pilots are engaged in direct combat with Russian pilots.
How Is a No Fly Zone Enforced?
The concept of imposing a no-fly zone is nothing new. It has been around for more than three decades and has been established a total of three times in history. As a result, a standard modus operandi is yet to be established and enforced.
The first thing to consider would be the source of justification for NATO or the US to impose a no-fly zone. Who gives the green light to impose a no-fly zone over a country?
For starters, the UN Charter’s Chapter 7, Article 42 indicates that the UN has the legal authority to impose blockades and other operations by land, sea, or air forces. These strategies are employed when all other attempts to resolve a conflict that threatens international peace have failed.
With that in mind, to establish a no-fly zone, the first step involves obtaining a mandate from the UN Security Council, which is made up of 15 member states. This process usually requires some form of deft diplomacy, given the fact that any of the five permanent Security Council member states, namely, the US, the UK, China, Russia, and France, can veto the action, effectively blocking it.
For instance, Russia and China blocked the move when a mandate was sought to establish a no-fly zone over Libya. However, they were later persuaded to abstain from voting for the action to continue.
Why a No Fly Zone Cannot Be Established Over Ukraine Airspace
In the case of Ukraine, establishing a no-fly zone over the country’s skies would be impossible to do since Russia is a permanent member of the UN Security Council. For this reason, any attempt to pass a Ukraine no-fly zone resolution will most certainly be vetoed by Russia.
A March 2022 research report released by the UK House of Commons (the UK’s version of the US Congress) indicates that a no-fly zone resolution can indeed be established provided that the UN Security Council receives consent from the country whose airspace it seeks to protect. In other words, if the Ukrainian government authorized NATO to cordon off access to its airspace, then a no-fly zone over the country can be established.
Once the issue of authority has been established, the question then becomes: What are the specific conditions imposed on the no-fly zone order? To better understand how this would work, let’s examine the conditions of the 2011 no-fly zone resolution passed with regard to the Libyan airspace.
The UN Security Council banned all flights into and out of the Libyan skies except for humanitarian flights on missions to deliver food and medical supplies or evacuate foreign nationals from conflict-plagued regions.
The conditions set forth also allowed UN member states to enforce similar restrictions over their respective airspaces provided that they notify the UN of such action and provide monthly reports detailing their actions and any airspace violation they may have encountered.
Additionally, member states were allowed to deny permission to planes departing from, overflying, or landing in their country’s airspace, if they had reason to believe that the aircraft in question was transporting mercenaries or weapons to Libya.
The Complexities of Establishing and Enforcing No Fly Zones
A major reason establishing a no fly zone over sovereign airspace is so complicated is that the UN and the countries that will offer personnel, missiles, aircraft, etc., all have to agree on specific rules of engagement (ROEs).
These ROEs need to spell out in great detail how and when to confront potential violators, how much and what kind of force should be used against them, and which entity gives the green light for such action to be taken should the situation present itself.
The specific measures taken to establish and enforce a no-fly zone over a country vary widely. For instance, in Iraq, allied air forces had fairly restrictive ROEs. In most cases, they were actively engaged in cat-and-mouse chases with violators, whittling them away when they crossed over into restricted airspace.
Things were vastly different in Libya. The UN issued broad authority, giving NATO expansive leeway to take “all necessary measures” to enforce the no-fly zone resolution.
The Bottom Line
Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed in no uncertain terms that any state that declared a no-fly zone over Ukraine would be deemed a party to the war, putting it in direct conflict with Russia.
From Putin’s remarks, what became immediately clear is that establishing a no-fly zone over Ukraine would do little to deter Russia from its devastating attacks on Ukrainian towns and cities. It is also worth mentioning that Russia has been using planes, rockets, and artillery that long-range fire missiles without ever having to leave Russian airspace.
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